不确定度分析方法探讨

  • 摘要: 详细讨论了燃料元件不确定度分析的数学方法,对FUA程序的数值求解过程作了一些补充,扩充的IFUA程序的数值求解过程可分为3个阶段,在每一阶段都增加了新的数学处理方法供用户选择。新引入的数学处理方法为:(1)超拉丁方抽样;(2)逐步回归;(3)用Pearson概率分布族求解概率密度函数。完成的例题表明,IFUA程序使用方便、灵活。

     

    Abstract: A detailed discussion is given in the paper with regard to the mathematical treatment and relevantnumerical techniques of uncertainty analysis used in FRAP codes (FUA). Following the discussion, animproved uncertainty analysis method (IFUA) is proposed. In IFUA, all basic mathematical treatmentsused in FUA remain unchanged, meanwhile three alternative procedures are introduced into IFUA.They are: (1) Latin hypercube sampling; (2) stepwise regression; (3) probabilistic density functionfitting using the Pearson curve family. A sample problem demonstrating the effectiveness of IFUA isaccomplished. The results show that the IFUA improves the capability of FUA and is more convenientand effective for practical use.

     

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