经验贝叶斯方法在核电站概率安全评价中的应用

Application of Empiric Bayesian Method in Probability Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant

  • 摘要: 文章阐述在应用贝叶斯估计时选择共轭先验分布的指导思想。详细论述了当运行失效和需求失效的先验分布为Lognormal分布时,利用重点式转换原则,将Lognormal分布转换为Gamma分布和Beta分布的方法。该方法计算简便,易于工程应用。基于该方法,研究开发了适于核电站可靠性参数计算分析的软件。

     

    Abstract: The paper gives a description of the idea of selecting the conjugate prior distribution using Bayesian method, and makes a detailed discussion on the technique of converting the Lognormal distribution to Gamma and Beta distribution by pivot conversion when the prior distribution of running failure and demand failure are abided by Lognormal distribution, which bears the characteristics of simplicity and convenience in calculation, as well as being easy to engineering application. Furthermore, it serves as the foundation for developing the software suitable of calculating the reliability parameters for nuclear power plant.

     

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