摘要: A new method was proposed for predicting single event upset (SEU) rate of semiconductor devices in space orbits based on Bayes theory. The SEU rates were calculated for the same kind of semiconductor devices based on small sample’s experiment data, by fitting the curve of the relationship between the upset cross-sections of semiconductor device and the heavy ion’s LET, and using the FOM method. The possible intervals of the SEU rates in a given confidence were predicted, too.