人的认知失误事件定量分析法的进展及应用

Development and Application for Quantification of Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method

  • 摘要: 认知可靠性与人误分析法(即认知失误分析法,CREAM)是具有代表性的第2代可靠性分析(HRA)方法,它可从回顾式和预测式进行班组人误事件概率的定量分析。本工作除描述了通用的CREAM方法外,还建立了用环境影响指数β与共同绩效条件(CPC)因子关系的人误事件概率简化的定量化公式,可用于计算核电厂人误事故中班组的人误事件概率。并假想以秦山一期蒸汽发生器传热管破裂(SGTR)事故为例,说明人的认知失误事件概率的计算过程及结果,为核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)的班组人因分析提供了另一种有效的途径,使核电厂的风险的概率估计值更为客观、更有参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is a representative method of the socalled second generation human reliability analysis (HRA) method and can be used in both retrospective and prospective analysis. Not only the general CREAM was descried, but also using the context effect factor β and common performance condition (CPC) factor, the formula was obtained for calculation of cognitive error probability in probability safety assessment (PSA)/HRA of nuclear power plant and to provide a simplified CREAM quantification process. One example was provided in the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event of Qinshan Ⅰ Nuclear Power Plant. The results give a more validated information for future application of PSA/HRA.

     

/

返回文章
返回