龙泉窑古陶瓷年代断定的中子活化分析和Bayes判别

Dating ancient Chinese celadon porcelain by neutron activation analysis and bayesian classification

摘要: 为实现龙泉窑古陶瓷年代的准确判定，利用中子活化分析（NAA）方法准确测定了南宋-元(AD 1127—1368)和明代(AD 1368—1644)龙泉窑古瓷胎中La、Sm、U、Ce等18种元素的含量。为提高实验数据的可靠性，利用马氏距离准则排除实验数据的异常值，并对实验数据进行了正态分布检验。在一定的假设前提下，应用Bayes判别法用预处理的实验数据对样品进行年代判别。结果表明：明代69个古陶瓷样品全部正确归类，南宋-元时期96个古陶瓷样品仅有3个未能正确归类，全部样品归类的正确率为98.2%，说明NAA技术和Bayes判别法可望在古陶瓷的年代断定研究中发挥重要作用。

Abstract: Dating ancient Chinese porcelain is one of the most important and difficult problems in porcelain archaeological field. Eighteen elements in bodies of ancient cel-adon porcelains fired in Southern Song to Yuan period (AD 1127-1368) and Ming dynasty (AD 1368-1644), including La, Sm, U, Ce, etc., were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). After the outliers of experimental data were excluded and multivariate normal distribution was tested, and Bayesian classification was used for dating of 165 ancient celadon porcelain samples. The results show that 98.2% of total ancient celadon porcelain samples are classified correctly. It means that NAA and Bayesian classification are very useful for dating ancient porcelain.