基于GM(1,1)模型与灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型的核动力装置趋势预测方法研究

Trend Prediction Methods Study of Nuclear Power Plant Based on GM(1,1) and Grey Markov GM(1,1) Models

  • 摘要: 在核动力装置灰色GM(1,1)模型趋势预测的基础上,引入马尔可夫链预测理论,建立核动力装置灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)趋势预测模型。该模型既考虑了GM(1,1)模型较强的处理单调数列的特性,又考虑了通过状态转移概率矩阵的变换提取数据随机波动响应的特点,灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型将这两种性质有机结合起来,具有严密的科学性,从而拓宽了传统灰色GM(1,1)模型预测的应用范围。实例验证表明:灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型充分利用历史数据给予的信息,不但能对核动力装置运行中的单调数列进行准确的趋势预测,也可实现对波动运行的重要参数进行准确的趋势预测,大幅提高了随机波动较大数据序列的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Based on the gray GM(1,1) model of trend prediction for the nuclear power plant, the Markov chains prediction method was presented and the grey Markov GM(1,1) model for predicting the trend of the nuclear power plant was built. The model combines together two kinds of inherent features, meaning that the model takes account both the feature of the GM(1,1) model for dealing with the numbers of strong monotonous series and the feature of random wave response in extracting data through state transfer probability matrix, which make it more scientific and rigorous. So it opens up applicable scope of grey GM(1,1) model prediction. The example shows that the precision of grey Markov GM(1,1) model for predicting the trend is better, not only dealing with the data of strong monotonous series, but also the data sequence of random response.

     

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