秦山第三核电厂人因可靠性分析

Human Reliability Analysis in Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

  • 摘要: 人因可靠性分析(HRA)是概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分。秦山第三核电厂(简称秦山三核)初版HRA由加拿大原子能公司(AECL)完成,其采用的HRA方法为简化的ASEPHRA。为获得更符合秦山三核运行状态实际的HRA结论,本工作对秦山三核重新进行了HRA分析,并增加了事件间的相关性分析。在对国际HRA方法比较研究的基础上,秦山三核HRA采用了规范化的THERP+HCR分析方法。新分析所得数据与AECL数据比较分析结果表明,新分析与AECL的分析判断基本一致,但在合理性和准确性方面较原分析有明显提高,分析结论更符合秦山三核实际。

     

    Abstract: Human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important component of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The design HRA was conducted by AECL and the technique was oversimplified. In order to make HRA represent the operational state of Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant more realistically, HRA was re-analyzed, to which dependence between events was added. On the basis of a comparison on internationally prevailing HRA techniques, a standardized THERP+HCR technique was adopted. Compared with AECL results, the updated is basically consistent with AECL analysis, while rationality and accuracy are obviously improved and results are more truthful.

     

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