分凝模型对近区剂量场预报结果的影响

Effects of Fractionation Models on Local Fallout Prediction

  • 摘要: 利用DELFIC中的一维气泡模型模拟核爆炸烟云上升过程,利用Davis-Stokes-Beard方程计算粒子沉降速率及Kolmogoroff-Batchelor理论计算水平扩散情况,重点考察了在特定粒径分布下F-T、Miller及G-X 3种分凝模型对不同粒径的粒子中放射性核素含量分布结果的影响及其对近区剂量场预报结果的影响。结果显示,实测结果与3种分凝模型预测结果相对偏差绝对值的均值分别为28%、45%和35%,即半经验的F-T分凝模型较采用热力学平衡假设的G-X分凝模型和Miller分凝模型对近区剂量场的预测结果更准确。总体而言,分凝模型对于近区剂量场预报结果具有较大影响。

     

    Abstract: Applying bubble model in DELFIC, Davis-Stokes-Beard equations and Kolmogoroff Batchelor theory, a computer procedure was developed to predict local fallout after a ground nuclear detonation. This work focuses on the activity distribution of three different fractionation models and their effects on local fallout prediction in the case of a given particle diameter distribution. The results show that F-T model is more accurate than G-X model and Miller model, and the mean absolute relative deviations are 28%, 45% and 35% respectively. Fractionation model plays an important role in local fallout prediction.

     

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