Abstract:
After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the impact evaluation of nuclear power plants resulted from external events is required in China, and the 12th Five-Year Plan for Nuclear Safety also demands that the probability safety assessment of external events shall be developed before 2015. The earthquake is one of the most important external events which are essentially evaluated, and the seismic fragility is a key element in seismic PSA, while the fragility model is the basis of seismic fragility analysis. In this paper, the concept of seismic fragility was introduced, the seismic fragility model recommended by NRC and EPRI was studied, and the fragility model was derived. Then, the application example of the fragility model was given, and the effects of fragility due to randomness and uncertainty were discussed. The results show that a wealth of knowledge and experience is useful for the fragility analysis, which would reduce the uncertainty and gain access to practice.