应用Jeffreys方法计算可靠性参数和始发事件频率的无信息先验

Calculation of Noninformative Prior of Reliability Parameter and Initiating Event Frequency With Jeffreys Method

  • 摘要: 在核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)分析中,有些始发事件频率或设备失效记录在工业界几乎无历史数据。为了计算这些无信息先验的可靠性参数和始发事件频率,可采用Bayesian统计学中的Jeffreys方法。本文阐述了Jeffreys先验和简化的受限无信息先验分布(SCNID)的数学原理,分别导出了Gamma-Poisson模型和Beta-Binomial模型的Jeffreys无信息先验公式和不确定性区间。结合反应堆冷却剂小破口失水事故(SLOCA)实例介绍了如何应用Jeffreys先验计算始发事件频率。结果表明,Jeffreys方法是一种计算无信息先验的有效方法。

     

    Abstract: In the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants, there are few historical records on some initiating event frequencies or component failures in industry. In order to determine the noninformative priors of such reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies, the Jeffreys method in Bayesian statistics was employed. The mathematical mechanism of the Jeffreys prior and the simplified constrained noninformative distribution (SCNID) were elaborated in this paper. The Jeffreys noninformative formulas and the credible intervals of the Gamma-Poisson and Beta-Binomial models were introduced. As an example, the small break loss-of-coolant accident (SLOCA) was employed to show the application of the Jeffreys prior in determining an initiating event frequency. The result shows that the Jeffreys method is an effective method for noninformative prior calculation.

     

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