基于德摩根展开与边界条件的事件树分析

Event Tree Analysis Based on Demorgan and Boundary Condition

  • 摘要: 大型复杂系统的事件树分析通常采用大链接方法,即将需要分析的事件树题头包含的安全功能系统的故障树模型合并转换为一棵规模较大的非单调关联故障树,然后再对其进行分析。该方法需消耗大量计算资源和时间。本文提出了一种基于德摩根展开与边界条件的事件树序列/后果故障树的建造方法,它根据分析人员的设置对每个事件树题头的成功分支进行不同精度的近似处理,以在满足工程需求的基础上提高计算速度。将该方法应用于FDS团队自主研发的概率安全/可靠性分析软件RiskA,并采用多个国际标准例题进行了正确性验证。

     

    Abstract: In the event tree analysis of large complex system, the fault tree model of correlative safety systems will be generally put together as a large non-coherent fault tree to be analyzed. This is known as the normal fault tree link method that needs vast computer resource and calculation time. A fault tree construction method for event tree sequence and consequence was developed based on Demorgan and boundary conditions. In the light of the different treatments of every function event in the event tree of this method, the calculation can be finished fast as much as possible while fulfill the demand of analysis. Coding of the event tree analysis module of RiskA, which was an integrated reliability and probabilistic safety analysis program developed by FDS Team, was finished and several practical cases were tested to prove its validity.

     

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