核电站最佳估算安全分析中的不确定度评估方法分析

Analysis on Uncertainty Evaluation Method in Best Estimate Safety Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

  • 摘要: 不确定度评估是核电站最佳估算安全分析中的重要一环。本文对不确定度的来源和不确定度评估方法进行了概述,将不确定度评估方法分为统计类和确定类两种,总结了统计类不确定度评估方法的一般流程。从计算代价和计算准确度等方面对各种不确定度评估方法进行了比较。分析结果表明,目前非参数抽样结合复杂热工水力模型的方法是不确定度评估最佳选择,该方法在满足“95/95准则”的前提下易实现,且计算代价较小。

     

    Abstract: The uncertainty evaluation is a key step of best estimate safety analysis for nuclear power plant. The origins of the uncertainty and the uncertainty evaluation methods were described. The methods could be categorized into statistical type and deterministic type, and the general procedure of statistical evaluation method was summarized. Various uncertainty evaluation methods were analyzed and compared from the aspect of computational cost and accuracy. The analysis result shows that the method coupling the nonparametric sampling with a sophisticated high-fidelity thermal-hydraulic model may be the best choice for the uncertainty evaluation in best estimate analysis at present. Under the condition that the “95/95 criteria” is satisfied, such a method is easy to implement and the cost is relatively low.

     

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