基于极限学习机模型的流动不稳定性多热工参量联合预测方法

Joint Prediction of Multiple Thermal Variables for Flow Instability Based on Extreme Learning Machine Model

  • 摘要: 摇摆条件下两相沸腾自然循环系统中存在着多种热工参量耦合作用引起的复杂流动不稳定性现象。为了对摇摆流动不稳定系统中的重要热工参量进行实时预测,提出了基于极限学习机人工神经网络模型的多热工参量联合时间序列预测方法。考虑流量和加热壁面温度两个热工参量,使用实验测量数据训练极限学习机模型,进行了单步和多步联合预测仿真实验,并研究了隐层节点数对预测效果的影响。仿真结果显示,基于极限学习机多参量联合预测方法的预测精度优于单一参量预测,且在较多提前步数的预测中优势更为明显。该方法可被推广至更多种热工参量的情况,是一种有效的流动不稳定系统热工参量实时预测途径。

     

    Abstract: The coupling of multiple thermal variables in two-phase boiling natural circulation system under rolling motion can result in complex flow instability. To predict the important thermal variables of flow instability systems under rolling motion, a multiple thermal variables and time series joint forecast method based on extreme learning machine neural networks model was proposed. Both flow rate and heating wall temperature were taken into consideration. The extreme learning machine model was trained using measured data. Both single-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead predictions were conducted and the influence of hidden note number on forecast performance was studied. Simulation experiment results show that multiple variables joint prediction based on extreme learning machine can produce better forecast performance than single variable forecast method and this advantage is more significant in prediction with more steps ahead. The method can be generalized to conditions with more thermal variables and is proved to be an effective real-time forecast method of thermal variables in flow instability systems.

     

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