减小辐射场剂量率预测不确定度的数据同化研究

Data Assimilation Applied in Reducing Uncertainty of Radiation Filed Dose Rate Prediction

  • 摘要: 为提高核事故早期辐射场剂量率评估的准确性和可靠度,提出一种基于数据同化理论的评价方法。根据数据同化理论,定义辐射场状态空间,建立了适合辐射场剂量率预测模型的状态转移和误差协方差矩阵。利用同化算法,综合考虑核事故辐射场剂量率预测模型与实测数据,实现辐射场剂量率的最优化表达。在Matlab软件平台上,运用数值模拟实验和福岛实测数据,对该方法进行了双重验证。实验结果表明,数值模拟实验条件下,当放射性物质空气释放率高估1个数量级时,同化后,辐射场剂量率相对均方根误差从1个数量级降低至50%左右。利用福岛核事故监测数据对同化系统进行验证,同化后的结果与实际测量结果相近,相对均方根误差在20%左右。以上结果表明,通过合理运用数据同化方法,可有效减小辐射场剂量率预测的不确定度。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the nuclear accident radiation field dose rate assessment in early phase, a method based on data assimilation theory was proposed. Using data assimilation theory, state vector of radiation field was defined, and forecast model operator and error covariance matrix for radiation field were established. To achieve optimal expression of the radiation field dose rate, both model predictions and measurements were taken into consideration by assimilation algorithm. In order to verify the reliability and accuracy of data assimilation methods, both numerical simulation experiment and experiment related on utilizing dose rate data measured at Fukushima were tested. The results show that under the condition of numerical simulation, the relative root mean square error of radiation field can reduce from one magnitude to about 50% caused by source term. By assimilating measurements data of Fukushima, the results are close to measurement data, and the relative root mean square error is about 20%. The above results show that the method of data assimilation can effectively reduce the uncertainty of radiation field prediction.

     

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