高精度相关变量随机数序列产生方法

Method for Generating High-precision Correlated Variable Pseudo-random Number Sequence

  • 摘要: 当对反应堆物理计算结果进行不确定性分析时,需产生多维相关变量随机数序列。为产生高质量的相关变量随机数序列以减少样本数量,本文首先从理论上分析给出了之前的多维相关变量随机数序列的协方差矩阵与真实的协方差矩阵有差别的原因,据此提出了解决方法,并采用数值计算对解决方法进行了验证。验证结果表明,对于3个变量的抽样序列,高精度相关变量抽样方法采用20个样本便得到与原相关系数矩阵一致的矩阵,抽样样本数量较之前的方法减少了5个量级;而对于33群的238U辐射俘获反应道,即使抽样样本数为34,最大相对误差亦仅0.061%,由此证明了方法的有效性。最后,利用不同方法对铅基快堆LFR进行了分析,传统正态分布抽样样本总数较高精度相关变量抽样方法的样本总数高1倍,其最大相对误差为12.5%,而高精度相关变量抽样方法的最大相对误差仅1.7%,计算精度有明显提高。结果表明该方法具有工程应用前景。

     

    Abstract: When the uncertainty analysis is performed for reactor physics calculation, it is often necessary to generate a multi-dimensional correlated variable pseudo-random number sequence. However, previous research shows that a particularly large sample sequence is required to basically ensure that the sample covariance matrix is consistent with the real covariance matrix. The reason why the covariance matrix of the previous multi-dimensional correlated variable pseudo-random number sequence is different from the real covariance matrix was first theoretically analyzed. The reason is that the generated multi-dimensional random number sequence is correlated. Then, the solution was proposed and verified by numerical calculation. For the sampling sequence of three variables, twenty samples were used for the high-precision correlated variable sampling method to obtain the same as the original correlation coefficient matrix. The number of sampled samples is reduced by two orders of magnitude compared with the previous method. The analysis of the 238U radiation capture reaction channel of 33 groups shows that even if the number of sampled samples is 34, the maximum relative error is only 0.061%, thus proving the method correctness. Finally, different methods for lead-based fast reactor LFR were analyzed. The total sample number of the traditional normal distribution sampling method is 1 times than that of high-precision correlated variable sampling method. The maximum relative error of the traditional normal distribution sampling method is 12.5%, and that of high-precision correlated variable sampling method is only 1.7%. Calculation accuracy is improved obviously. It shows that this method has a prospect in engineering application.

     

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