核电厂严重事故下氢气源项的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrogen Source Term under Severe Accident of Nuclear Power Plant

  • 摘要: 基于LHS(拉丁超立方体抽样)方法及Pearson和Spearman相关系数,通过MELCOR程序对600 MW级核电厂开展了全厂断电(SBO)严重事故下氢气源项的不确定性量化及参数重要度分析。选取电厂热功率、碎片床孔隙度、包壳中存在未完全氧化的锆合金时燃料棒能维持几何形状的最高温度、熔融物烛流过程最大流速作为不确定输入变量,经过对100组输入集的计算,最终得到了95%置信度下压力容器内氢气产量的统计分布及各参数的影响程度。结果表明:压力容器内的氢气产量在239~424 kg范围内,相当于34.5%~61.2%锆水反应产生的氢气量,且符合正态分布;碎片床孔隙度对压力容器内氢气产量有显著正相关影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on the LHS (Latin hypercube sampling) method, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, the uncertainty quantification of hydrogen source term and parameter importance analysis under the severe accident (SA) of station black out (SBO) were performed for the 600 MW nuclear power plant through MELCOR code. The thermal power of the plant, the porosity of the debris bed, the temperature to which oxidized fuel rods can stand in the absence of unoxidized Zr in the cladding and the maximum melt flow rate after breakthrough were selected as uncertain input variables. The statistical distribution of hydrogen production in-vessel with 95% confidence and the influence degree of each parameter were obtained through the calculation of 100 sets of input. The results show that the hydrogen production in-vessel is in the range of 239 kg to 424 kg, which is equivalent to the hydrogen generated from the 34.5% to 61.2% of the zirconium-water reaction and conforms to the normal distribution, and the porosity of the debris bed has a significant positive correlation with hydrogen production.

     

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