Abstract:
Risk-informed safety margin is a new safety concept of nuclear power industry in recent ten years. By quantifying the riskinformed safety margin, it may provide a new technical idea to support the management decisions for nuclear power plant life extension, longterm operation, power uprate and some other safety problems. Methodologically, the calculation method of riskinformed safety margin is to generate a series of riskbased scenarios according to the state of knowledge, use the system model to calculate the specific safety parameters value of each scenario, then analyze the relationship between the load and capacity distribution of the safety parameters, and statistically calculate the probability that the load exceeds the capacity of safety parameters. There are several methods to generate the scenarios, which include Monte Carlo method, discrete dynamic event tree method, combination of Monte Carlo and discrete dynamic event, adaptive sampling and so on. The analysis method of riskinformed safety margin based on the discrete dynamic event tree was described in this paper, which can better reflect the time characteristics of accident evolution. The mathematical expressions of mean and standard deviation of failure probability of nuclear fuel cladding were proposed. Under the simplified pressurized water reactor (PWR) model, the process of riskinformed safety margin for station black out accident based on discrete dynamic event tree was proposed, then the mean value and uncertainty of nuclear fuel cladding failure probability under two kinds of branching rules were calculated. The influence of the branching rules, key model parameter distribution and maximum time step of system program were analyzed. The calculation results show that the riskinformed safety margin can be automatically calculated by the discrete dynamic event tree method and computer programming for specific safety parameters, the distribution of key parameters and the setting of system program have a significant impact on the mean value of failure probability of fuel cladding. With different branching rules, the calculation results of the mean value of fuel cladding failure probability are different. The finer the branching is, the smaller the mean value of fuel cladding failure probability is, the longer running time and the larger storage space of computer are required. Finally, an improved branch method of variable probability threshold was proposed to balance the matching problem between calculation accuracy and calculation resources. It is necessary to further study the uncertainty evaluation of the calculation method for riskinformed safety margin, the verification of the calculation results and the improved efficiency algorithm to balance the calculation accuracy and resources.