基于PoF与数据驱动融合算法的核电仪控卡件剩余寿命预测方法研究

Research on Remaining Life Prediction Method of Nuclear Power Instrument Control Circuit Board Based on PoF and Data-driven Fusion Algorithm

  • 摘要: 作为核电厂的神经中枢,仪表控制系统的稳定性与可靠性是保证核电厂安全运行的关键。对核电仪控系统卡件进行剩余寿命预测可降低直接更换带来的维护、购置费用,可减少关键设备的损坏风险,是提高系统可靠性的重要手段。数据驱动和故障物理(PoF)是剩余寿命预测领域的两种主要方法,然而这两种方法都存在着一定的局限性,且现有融合算法难以对应力多样、结构复杂的核电产品实现准确的剩余寿命预测。针对以上问题,本文提出了一套基于PoF与数据驱动融合算法的核电产品剩余寿命预测方法,该方法采用广义阿伦尼斯模型进行PoF建模,利用维纳过程进行退化过程建模并生成退化数据,基于长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络实现PoF数据与数据驱动方法的有效融合。依据所提方法完成了某核电站仪表控制系统DC-DC卡件的剩余使用寿命预测,通过不同算法的比较,验证了本文所提方法的有效性与准确性。研究结果可用于指导核电站仪控设备的预防性维修,也为设备可靠性管理提供了参考和方向。

     

    Abstract: As the nerve center of nuclear power plants, the stability and reliability of the instrumentation and control (I&C) system are the key to ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plants. Predicting the remaining life of nuclear power I&C system circuit boards can reduce the maintenance and acquisition costs caused by direct replacement and reduce the risk of damage to key equipments, which is an important means to improve system reliability. Data-driven and physics of failure (PoF) are the two main methods in the field of remaining life prediction, but both methods have limitations: The method based on PoF requires less data information, but it is difficult to establish a complex system fault physical model. The accuracy of data-driven method depends on large data. Only by learning and training with enough data can obtain better prediction accuracy. The existing fusion algorithms are difficult to achieve accurate remaining life prediction for nuclear power products with diverse stresses and complex structures. In addition, the current research focuses on the fusion of single fault mechanism and data-driven algorithm, and the fault physical model of single fault mechanism is difficult to meet the solving requirements of complex systems with variable environmental stresses. A method for predicting residual life of nuclear power products with diverse stresses and complex structures is urgently needed. In order to solve the above problems, in this paper a remaining life prediction method for nuclear power products was proposed based on PoF and data-driven fusion algorithms, which uses the generalized Arrhenius model for PoF modeling, the Wiener process was used to model the degradation process and generate degradation data, and the effective fusion of the PoF and data-driven method was achieved with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. Based on the proposed method, the remaining service life prediction of DC-DC board of the instrument control system of a nuclear power plant was completed. In the prediction of the remaining life of DC-DC board, it is found that more accurate prediction effect will be obtained after the degraded data generated by Wiener process are used for prediction. The prediction effect of LSTM, bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and support vector machines (SVM) were compared. Considering the prediction effect and prediction error comprehensively, LSTM algorithm achieves the best prediction effect. This further verifies the validity and accuracy of the proposed method. The research results can be used to guide the preventive maintenance of instrumentation and control equipment in nuclear power plants, and also provide reference and direction for equipment reliability management.

     

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