基于灵敏度/不确定度方法的快中子裂变的衰变热不确定度分析

Uncertainty Analysis of Decay Heat Power after Fast Neutron Fission Based on Sensitivity/Uncertainty Method

  • 摘要: 针对传统轻水堆衰变热的计算标准不适用于快堆的问题,为此,本文采用灵敏度/不确定度(S/U)方法,在分析衰变热计算过程中由于核数据引入的不确定度的基础上,开展了快中子裂变的裂变产物衰变热不确定度计算方法研究,得到了1~1013 s时间范围内235U和239Pu的快中子裂变产物衰变热不确定度及其与半衰期、平均能量、裂变产额、分支比不确定度的关系。结果表明,在1~103 s以及108~1010 s时间范围内,235U和239Pu的快中子裂变产物衰变热不确定度为2%~10%;在103~108 s时间范围内,衰变热不确定度小于2%。本文建立的235U和239Pu的快中子裂变产物衰变热不确定度分析的方法流程以及不确定度标准数据,为后续钠冷快堆、铅冷快堆和气冷快堆衰变热的不确定度分析评价奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract: To deal with the problem that notable light water reactor decay heat calculation standard is not suitable for fast reactor, this paper adopted the sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) method to analyze the uncertainty introduced by nuclear data in the calculation of decay heat. Calculation method of decay heat uncertainty of fast neutron fission was studied. The uncertainty of decay heat of fast neutron fission for 235U and 239Pu in 1-1013 s after reactor shutdown, and its relationship with the uncertainty of half-life, energy, fission yield, and branching ratio, were calculated. On this basis, Python programming language was used to develop a set of analysis software for evaluating the uncertainty of decay heat. According to the decay heat of fission products of 235U and 239Pu after fast neutron fission, the standard uncertainty data with reference value were obtained. The results show that the uncertainty of decay heat of fast neutron fission for 235U and 239Pu ranges from 2% to 10% in 1-103 s and 108-1010 s. The uncertainty of decay heat of fast neutron fission in 103-108 s is less than 2%. The calculation process for analyzing the uncertainty of decay heat after fast neutron fission for 235U and 239Pu established in this paper can be used in the subsequent uncertainty analysis and evaluation of decay heat in sodium cooled fast reactors, lead cooled fast reactors, and gas cooled fast reactors.

     

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