基于评价核数据抽样的不确定度量化及同化方法研究

Uncertainty Quantification and Assimilation Method Based on Evaluated Nuclear Data Sampling Method

  • 摘要: 不确定度量化及核数据同化对提高核反应堆中子学计算精度有重要意义。本文基于评价核数据抽样方法进行中子学计算结果的不确定度量化,基于贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法建立了核数据同化方法,结合宏观装置实测结果及测量不确定度,对评价核数据进行同化,以降低目标核反应堆中子学计算结果与实测结果之间的偏差。利用以上方法对中国实验快堆CEFR、美国ZPPR反应堆等钠冷快堆开展了核数据同化研究并进行了两方面测试:一方面,利用与以上两个装置相似的反应堆分别对核数据进行同化,同化后CEFR有效增殖因数计算偏差从先验评价核数据库的−588 pcm降低到34 pcm,ZPPR-9由先验核数据库的−700 pcm降低到59 pcm;另一方面,利用CEFR的实验测量数据对核数据进行同化,有效降低了CEFR的有效增殖因数、控制棒价值、钠空泡反应性系数等多响应的计算偏差和不确定度。表明建立的基于评价核数据抽样的不确定度量化及核数据同化方法,可通过优化核数据使中子学计算结果与实验结果更加吻合。

     

    Abstract: The sampling method developed based on evaluated nuclear data aims to more accurately quantify uncertainties and adjust prior nuclear data using measurement results and calculation uncertainties. This approach assumes that nuclear data distributions follow a normal distribution, as suggested by the maximum entropy estimation principle. The evaluated nuclear data sampling code, NECP-SOUL, was utilized to produce random nuclear data samples of ENDF-6 format, and then the nuclear data processing code, NECP-Atlas, was used to generate the application libraries based on each ENDF-6 sample. For transport calculations, the Monte Carlo code NECP-MCX and the deterministic code NECP-SARAX were employed to compute prior effective multiplication factors, control rod worth, and sodium void reactivity coefficients. To analyze correlations and identify reactors with high similarity, the SSD similarity coefficient (similarity coefficient modified by standard deviation) was proposed to correct the conventional Pearson similarity coefficient. The Bayes-Monte Carlo approach was used to integrate measurement results and associated uncertainties to find optimal posterior nuclear data. The squared Mahalanobis distance was employed to quantify deviations between calculation and experimental values, and assign weight for each sample based on these deviations. The Bayes-Monte Carlo framework was used to the assimilation of nuclear data for two application aspects. Firstly, the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) and ZPPR-9 were set as target reactor, and several devices similar with these two reactors respectively were selected to assimilate evaluated nuclear data. The posterior nuclear data makes the deviation between the calculated and experimental keff of CEFR reduced from −588 pcm to 34 pcm, and ZPPR-9 from −700 pcm to 59 pcm. Secondly, the nuclear data were assimilated using the experiments performed on CEFR, and the posterior nuclear data were used to simulate CEFR itself. In this context, the maximum absolute deviation between calculated and experimental keff of CEFR was reduced from −1 016 pcm to −26 pcm, with a corresponding reduction in uncertainty from 1061 pcm to 79 pcm. The results show that the sampling-based method for uncertainty quantification and nuclear data assimilation develop in this work is effective for practical engineering applications. The developed method can be extended to shielding calculation, criticality safety analysis, and so on.

     

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