IDHEAS-ECA方法在核电厂严重事故下人员可靠性分析中的应用

Application of IDHEAS-ECA Method in Human Reliability Analysis during Severe Accident for Nuclear Power Plant

  • 摘要: 严重事故下的人员可靠性分析(HRA)是二级概率安全分析(PSA)的关键技术要素和难点。由于严重事故下人员心理多变、组织协调复杂、缺少模拟培训等,国际上很少有适用的HRA模型。近年来国内核工业界积极探索严重事故下的HRA,但所用模型和方法适用性欠佳。2022年,美国核管会推出适用于全部风险指引监管活动的事件和状态评估综合人因事件分析(IDHEAS-ECA)方法,为相关研究指明方向。本文对IDHAES-ECA方法进行了研究和凝练,提出了严重事故下HRA需要特殊考虑的绩效影响因子(PIF)。以某华龙一号核电厂严重事故下一回路注水为案例,应用IDHEAS-ECA方法开展了定量化分析,同时采用国内常用的SPAR-H方法与IDHEAS-ECA方法结果进行对比和讨论。分析表明,SPAR-H方法现有模型由于其固有缺陷,且无实证数据支撑,无法适用于严重事故下的HRA,而IDHEAS-ECA方法由于其完善的PIF和认知模型,更能适应当下工程项目全范围PSA的应用需求,也代表当前国际最新的认知水平。本研究可为核电工程项目和核安全领域采用IDHAES-ECA方法提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: Human reliability analysis (HRA) during severe accidents is a crucial yet challenging technical aspect in level 2 probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The variability of human psychology, the complexity of inter-team coordination, and insufficient simulation training have led to a scarcity of applicable HRA models internationally during severe accidents. In recent years, domestic nuclear power plants have been actively exploring HRA during severe accidents, but the applicability of the current models and methods is less than satisfactory. In 2022, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed the integrated human event analysis system for event and condition assessment (IDHEAS-ECA) method, which was applicable to HRA in all risk-informed regulatory activities and provides guidance for related research. The IDHEAS-ECA method was studied and summarized, performance influencing factor (PIF) that need to be specifically considered in HRA during severe accidents were proposed, along with their corresponding descriptions. These included information availability and reliability, scenario familiarity, task complexity, mental fatigue, time pressure and stress, procedures/guidelines, environment and situation, systems, physical demands, etc. This method was then applied to the HRA of primary loop water injection during severe accidents at an HPR1000 nuclear power plant and compared with the SPAR-H method through analysis and discussion. The research indicates that severe accidents typically involve long time windows, and directly applying the SPAR-H method can result in significant deviations, potentially causing the human error probability during severe accidents to be much lower than that during design basis accidents and design extension conditions. The IDHEAS-ECA method better meets the application requirements of the full-scope PSA in current engineering projects and represents the latest international cognitive level. However, the IDHEAS-ECA method has several limitations in engineering applications. First, the recovery factor (Re) of the cognitive failure mode (CFM) in this methodology is set to 1 by default, which lacks specific guidance and results in a certain level of conservatism in the analysis results. In engineering applications, a combination of field interviews and simulator-based tracking analysis can be used to determine the likelihood of task recovery for a particular CFM, thereby establishing the value of Re. Second, the total human error probability distribution and parameters in this methodology are still under investigation, which is a common issue faced by various HRA methods. It is recommended to refer to general HRA engineering practices, provide error factors based on log-normal distribution expert judgment, or employ the constrained non-informative (CNI) prior distribution for uncertainty analysis. Third, while the method offers a wide range of PIF and attribute selections, it is prone to subjectivity. Therefore, when applying the method to projects, it is necessary to develop implementation rules based on the project’s specific circumstances to enhance the consistency of analysis results. Fourth, most of the basic human error data in this method originate from simulator and experimental data in countries such as the US and South Korea, which may limit its applicability to domestic projects. It is suggested that independent human reliability data be collected in China and the data in this method be updated. This study has significant implications for nuclear power engineering projects and the field of nuclear safety.

     

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