结合Transformer算法的核反应堆综合安全裕度评估与灵活运行方法研究

Research on Comprehensive Safety Margin Assessment and Flexible Operation Method for Nuclear Power Plants Based on Transformer Model

  • 摘要: 近年来,风险指引的安全裕度分析(RISMC)方法作为一种先进的核安全评估工具,能够动态量化事故风险,为操作决策提供支持。然而,RISMC方法在实际应用中仍面临着计算效率低、资源消耗大及快速响应能力不足的问题。本文提出一种融合高保真热工水力(T-H)仿真与代理模型的高效安全裕度计算框架。该框架利用基于T-H仿真生成高保真响应数据,然后训练Transformer代理模型进行快速风险预测,从而显著提升计算效率与预测精度。本文以核电厂二回路给水部分丧失事故为案例,通过不同操作员干预策略的仿真分析,验证方法的有效性。仿真结果表明,相较于传统回归方法,Transformer代理模型在安全裕度计算中的均方误差(MSE)降低约90%,决定系数(R2)提升至0.982。所提出的方法能够高效预测不同操作策略下关键安全参数的动态变化,快速量化停堆风险,显著增强提升操纵员的态势感知能力,为核电厂提供风险指引型决策支持。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology has emerged as an advanced tool for probabilistic nuclear safety assessment, which combines the advantages of deterministic safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. RISMC enables dynamic quantification of accident risk and provides technical support for risk-informed decision-making during plant operation. However, the practical application of RISMC faces significant challenges, including low computational efficiency, high demand for computing resources, and limited capability for real-time risk prediction, especially under complex and rapidly changing operating conditions in modern nuclear power plants. These limitations restrict the ability of traditional methods to provide rapid and accurate safety margin evaluations, which are essential for timely operator response and effective accident mitigation. To address these limitations, this study proposed an efficient safety margin evaluation framework that integrates high-fidelity thermal-hydraulic (T-H) simulations with a data-driven surrogate model. Specifically, T-H simulations were used to generate large-scale response datasets representing different accident scenarios and operational strategies. Based on this dataset, a Transformer-based surrogate model was trained, which leverages self-attention mechanism to effectively capture complex nonlinear relationships and global dependencies among high-dimensional system parameters. Unlike traditional machine learning models, such as support vector machine (SVM) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP), the Transformer architecture offers significant advantages in modeling dynamic sequences and handling high-dimensional, strongly coupled system features. The proposed framework significantly improves both computational efficiency and prediction accuracy in safety margin analysis, enabling rapid evaluation of reactor safety margins under a variety of operator intervention conditions. To validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method, a comprehensive case study was conducted focusing on the partial loss of feedwater (PLOFW) accident in the secondary circuit of a typical pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant. The performance of the Transformer-based surrogate model was quantitatively compared with conventional regression models, including SVM and MLP, using metrics such as mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results demonstrate that the Transformer-based model reduces the MSE by approximately 90%, improves the R2 value to 0.982, and achieves reliable and rapid predictions of critical safety parameter limits under various operator intervention strategies. Furthermore, by efficiently quantifying the probability of exceeding safety limits and reactor shutdown risk, the proposed approach enhances operators’ situational awareness, supports real-time monitoring, and provides timely, quantitative, and risk-informed decision support for accident mitigation and safe operation of nuclear power plants. This work demonstrates the great potential of integrating advanced surrogate modeling with RISMC methodology for improving the flexibility, efficiency, and accuracy of nuclear safety margin management in complex engineering environments.

     

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