基于LSTM神经网络对小堆事故重要参数的多变量预测

Multivariate Prediction of Key Parameters for SMR Accidents Based on LSTM Neural Network

  • 摘要: 针对小型模块化反应堆事故工况下关键参数动态预测的时效性与精度问题,研究提出一种基于LSTM神经网络的多变量滚动预测框架,覆盖LOCA、SGTR及SBO 3种典型事故场景。通过XGBoost-SHAP联合算法筛选事故特异性关键参数实现特征提取,构建多输入-多输出单步预测模型及滚动预测模型实现长时预测。其中单步预测模型的R2均在0.98以上,展现了很好的单步预测效果,LOCA的滚动预测平均绝对误差低于0.014 0,且预测耗时小于1 s;SGTR与SBO事故因参数梯度突变、波动严重导致秒级偏移,但趋势预测仍有效。本研究为小堆事故后参数趋势预测与操纵员决策提供了高精度时序预测工具,后续可通过扩展工况多样性进一步提升模型泛化能力。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and timely multivariate prediction of critical parameters during small modular reactor (SMR) accidents is essential for enhancing operational safety and enabling proactive intervention. Current physical models struggle to capture complex nonlinear dynamics in real-time, while conventional data-driven methods typically focus on single-parameter predictions and lack robust long-term, multi-variable forecasting capabilities. To address these limitations, an integrated prediction framework based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks was developed in this study, combining SHAP-based feature selection with a rolling prediction mechanism for three typical accident scenarios: loss of coolant accident (LOCA), steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), and station black-out (SBO). High-fidelity transient data were generated via RELAP5/SCDAPSIM simulations on the ACP100 reactor, capturing 197-198 seconds post-accident at 1 Hz sampling frequency. The XGBoost-SHAP algorithm was employed to select the four most influential parameters for each accident from 24 thermal-hydraulic candidates, ensuring physical relevance and model interpretability. For LOCA, the selected parameters were pressurizer liquid temperature, water level, pressure, and steam generator heat transfer; for SGTR: pressurizer liquid temperature, total heat transfer, main loop 2 steam outflow, and secondary pressure; and for SBO: hot-leg coolant temperature (loop 1), main loop 1 flow rate, pressurizer pressure, and core power. Multi-input-multi-output LSTM architectures were constructed with dual stacked layers of 60 units each, ReLU-activated fully connected layers, Adam optimization, batch size of 256, and mean squared error loss function. The model used 10-second historical sequences (4 parameters×10 time steps) to predict parameter values at the next time step (4×1). This single-step predictor was then embedded in an iterative rolling scheme to achieve long-term forecasting over nearly 190 seconds. Results demonstrate excellent single-step accuracy, with R2 values exceeding 0.983 for all parameters and reaching 0.999 9 for LOCA pressurizer pressure. In rolling prediction, LOCA achieves outstanding performance with mean absolute error (MAE) between 0.004 8 and 0.014 0 across eight test conditions, completing forecasts in under one second. SGTR and SBO scenarios show higher MAE (0.016 2-0.111 7) due to sharp parameter gradients and fluctuations, but maintained reliable trend prediction for situational awareness. This framework provides a robust, computationally efficient tool for SMR accident management, supporting predictive operator intervention and enabling a shift from detection-response to prediction-intervention paradigms. Future work will expand scenario diversity, incorporate longer time-series data, and explore enhanced neural architectures to further improve model generalization and practical applicability in nuclear power plant settings.

     

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