一种针对高温蠕变变形的反向传播神经网络模型研究

Research on a Backpropagation Neural Network Model for High-temperature Creep Deformation

  • 摘要: 321H不锈钢是核反应堆关键部件的备选材料,其高温蠕变行为是影响部件结构完整性与服役寿命的关键因素,因此对材料进行准确的长时蠕变评估至关重要。通过构建基于数据驱动的反向传播神经网络(BPNN)模型,系统研究了321H不锈钢的长时蠕变变形行为。首先,利用短时蠕变试验数据训练BPNN模型,预测10 000 h的完整蠕变变形历程;其次,基于不同应力条件下的蠕变试验数据,对模型进行稳定性验证。结果表明:所建立的模型对321H不锈钢长时蠕变变形的预测相对误差在2%以下;增加训练数据的时间长度可显著提升预测精度;模型在处理典型高应力工况下的蠕变问题时展现出良好的泛化能力。短时试验数据可靠外推模型,对于结构长时蠕变评估具有重要的工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: The structural integrity and in-service lifetime of critical components within advanced nuclear power systems are fundamentally governed by their performance under prolonged exposure to extreme conditions of high temperature and mechanical stress. 321H stainless steel is a principal material employed for such demanding applications, making the precise long-term prediction of its creep deformation behavior a paramount objective for both reactor safety authorities and design engineers. Conventional forecasting methods, which predominantly rely on empirical models fitted to relatively short-term data, are often inadequate for reliable multi-thousand-hour extrapolations due to underlying mechanistic transitions and complex microstructural evolution. In this paper, a new data-driven model based on a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) was developed to solve this problem, the main goal was to use short-term creep data to accurately predict the full creep strain curve up to 10 000 hours. The model training used experimental creep data at 550 ℃ under 190 MPa stress. Tests were specifically designed to study how the amount of training data affects prediction accuracy. For this purpose, the model was trained with different datasets: 3 000 hours, 4 000 hours, and 5 000 hours of creep data. After training, the model’s stability was tested by applying it to two other stress conditions, 170 MPa and 180 MPa, at the same temperature. This validation process checks whether the model can generalize well to similar high-stress scenarios. The results are highly positive. The model achieves a very low prediction relative error less than 2%, for the 10 000 hours creep strain when trained on 5 000 hours of data. It accurately captures the entire creep curve, including the initial primary stage and the critical steady-state stage. It also finds a clear relationship between training data length and prediction accuracy. Increasing the training duration significantly improves the model’s long-term forecast reliability. Furthermore, the model demonstrates excellent interpolation capabilities within the 170-190 MPa stress range, successfully predicting the creep behavior of stresses that have not been directly trained. In conclusion, this research proves that BPNN model is a powerful and reliable tool for the long-term creep assessment of 321H stainless steel. It provides a practical and efficient method for predicting material behavior, which can greatly accelerate the design and safety evaluation of nuclear reactor components. The study also offers clear guidance on the necessary amount of short-term test data needed for achieving dependable long-term predictions.

     

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