基于经典关系式先验和残差学习的池沸腾换热系数预测方法

Prediction of Pool Boiling Heat Transfer Coefficient Using Residual Learning with Classical Correlation Prior

  • 摘要: 池沸腾换热是反应堆换热器中的重要换热形式,其换热系数预测对反应堆安全分析具有重要意义。然而,受加热面倾角、液体过冷度、壁面过热度等因素耦合影响,传统经验关系式在复杂工况下仍存在预测局限。基于此,本文采用经验关系式先验的机器学习残差修正方法,开展水工质池沸腾换热系数预测研究。实验数据库来源于67组独立实验,含4 574个数据点。本文以Han经验关系式作为先验基准模型,比较了不同输入参数组合对模型性能的影响,并选取5种机器学习模型开展对比分析;同时,将关系式先验模型与纯机器学习模型进行比较,并对最优模型在不同工况下的误差分布进行分析。结果表明,热流密度的引入可明显改善残差学习效果,极端随机数模型在5种模型中综合表现最优;与纯机器学习模型相比,关系式先验在一定程度上能提升模型预测性能。该方法兼顾经验关系式的物理基础与机器学习的非线性修正能力,可为水工质池沸腾换热系数预测提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Pool boiling is an important heat transfer mode in reactor heat exchangers, passive residual heat removal systems, and accident mitigation processes. Accurate prediction of its heat transfer coefficient is essential for evaluating thermal safety margins in nuclear energy systems. However, pool boiling heat transfer is affected by coupled factors such as heating surface inclination, liquid subcooling, and wall superheat. Owing to the limited applicability of their assumptions and calibration databases, conventional empirical correlations often show considerable errors under complex operating conditions, especially when subcooling and inclination effects coexist. To improve prediction accuracy while retaining the physical basis of classical correlations, a residual learning method with an empirical-correlation prior for predicting the pool boiling heat transfer coefficient of water was proposed in this study. A comprehensive experimental database was adopted from 67 independent datasets, including 4 574 data points covering liquid subcooling from 0 K to 85 K, heating surface inclination from 0° to 180°, and heat flux from 1.3 kW/m2 to 8 610.5 kW/m2. The Han correlation, which considers both subcooling and inclination effects, was selected as the prior baseline model. Machine learning models were trained to learn the residual between experimental data and correlation predictions. Three input-parameter combinations and five representative regression models, including Random Forest, Extra Trees, XGBoost, LightGBM, and multilayer perceptron artificial neural network, were compared. Pure machine learning models were also established to examine the role of the empirical prior. The results show that input-parameter selection significantly affects model performance. Using only heating surface inclination, liquid subcooling, and wall superheat leads to relatively large errors. Introducing heat flux substantially improves prediction accuracy, while further inclusion of the bubble Reynolds number and subcooling Jakob number provides only limited improvement. Among the five models, Extra Trees shows the best overall performance, with a test-set R2 of 0.998 5, an adjusted R2 of 0.998 5, a mean absolute relative error of 2.83%, and a mean relative error of 0.51%. Compared with pure machine learning models, the empirical-correlation-prior approach further reduces prediction errors and systematic bias, especially for the neural-network model. Error-distribution analysis indicates that the proposed model maintains low errors across different inclination, subcooling, and wall-superheat ranges, with large deviations mainly associated with a few outlier samples. The proposed method combines the physical interpretability of empirical correlations with the nonlinear correction capability of machine learning, providing a robust approach for predicting the pool boiling heat transfer coefficient of water under complex operating conditions.

     

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